Updated 2 November 2026. Brent crude is trading near $110 a barrel on Monday, down about 3 percent from Friday’s $113.43 January settlement (Trading Economics, 2 November); Reuters had Brent down 3.2 percent at $109.75 by 04:07 GMT. OPEC+ kept December output targets unchanged on Sunday, as expected, so the drop is about Iran: Tehran says a Qatari-brokered plan could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days. Verdict: the hold changed nothing; the risk premium is now trading on whether Washington answers the plan. Reference levels: $104 below, $120 above.
Key facts
- Price: Brent near $110.06, down $3.37 on the day (Trading Economics). Reuters: $111.84 at 00:11 GMT, down 1.40 percent, with WTI at $102.56 (via CNBC); $109.75 by 04:07 GMT, down 3.2 percent (via Finimize). OilPriceAPI showed $110.05 at 06:31 GMT.
- Friday: Brent January settled at $113.43 and the expired December contract at $117.64. Brent gained 13.6 percent in October (Reuters via our OPEC+ decision report).
- OPEC+: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman kept December production targets unchanged at their online meeting on 1 November, a third straight monthly pause. No further policy changes are expected until next year (Reuters via CNBC).
- What comes next for OPEC+: a review of members’ production capacity, now due by mid-November, and a meeting of all 21 members on 29 November that is expected to address the 2027 baselines (Reuters).
- Iran’s plan: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera that Qatar persuaded Tehran to shorten a seven-day plan to two days: US measures on day one, Hormuz reopened on day two. Washington has not publicly responded (investingLive).
- Saudi exports: rose in October from September despite Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, according to two of three ship-tracking companies (Reuters via CNBC).
OPEC+ held, and the market moved on
Our Sunday Brent page was written before the decision and argued that a hold was already in the price. The first session confirmed it. Brent opened lower and the slide deepened through the Asian morning, from about 1.4 percent at 00:11 GMT to more than 3 percent by 04:07 GMT. Nothing in that move traces back to OPEC+.
The reason is the same one that has held since September: most Gulf producers still pump below their targets because of the war, so a target that is held, raised or cut barely changes the barrels on the water. The real OPEC+ dates are the capacity review in mid-November and the 29 November meeting, where the 2027 baselines decide how the remaining cuts, about 2 million barrels per day for most members, are unwound.
The Hormuz plan, and its conditions
The oil move is about Iran. Iranian and Qatari officials held a third straight day of talks on ending the US-Israeli war on Iran, with Pakistan also mediating (Reuters via CNBC, investingLive). Araghchi’s two-day timetable is the most concrete proposal so far, but the conditions attached go to the core of the dispute: lifting recently imposed US sanctions, reinstating June oil waivers, a smaller US military presence, recognition of new shipping routes designated by Iran and Oman, an end to the conflict on all fronts including Israel’s attacks on Lebanon, and the release of frozen funds, including those held in Qatar (investingLive).
Washington’s response has been slow. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he was not aware of a timeframe for a reply, and President Trump said he was in no great hurry to reach a deal. Meanwhile, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed two more tankers struck mines in Hormuz on Sunday, a claim that has not been independently verified (investingLive).
What analysts say
Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, called Monday’s fall a technical pullback after last week’s strong gains, helped by lingering hopes of diplomatic progress. He also warned that rhetoric around Iran could be stepped up after Tuesday’s midterm elections and push Brent toward $120 (Reuters via CNBC). ING said the next test is whether the geopolitical risk premium keeps fading without a major new strike or a breakthrough (via Finimize). Even after today’s drop, Brent is up about 9.7 percent over the past month (Trading Economics).
Brent this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Brent (January) | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $104 | Washington engages with the two-day plan, tanker traffic through Hormuz picks up, and no confirmed new strike follows the midterms. | About 5.5 percent below Monday’s ~$110, roughly halfway back to Brent’s end-September level near $100 (implied by October’s 13.6 percent gain to $113.43). |
| Base | $106-$114 | Talks continue without a deal, incidents at sea stay unconfirmed and the market waits for Washington’s reply. | Between the bear case and Friday’s $113.43 settlement. |
| Bull | $120 | Talks stall, the post-midterm rhetoric hardens or a confirmed strike hits shipping in the strait. | Tim Waterer’s (KCM Trade) post-midterm risk level; about 9 percent above Monday’s price. |
The bear case sits below Monday’s price. These are reference levels measured from the verified spot, not forecasts.
What to watch
- A US reply to the Qatari-brokered plan. Any public response is the fastest route to either end of the table.
- Tuesday 3 November: the US midterms, flagged by analysts as the point where Iran rhetoric could change.
- Tanker incidents in Hormuz: separate confirmed reports (UKMTO) from claims by the Revolutionary Guards.
- Mid-November: the OPEC+ capacity review, ahead of the 29 November meeting on 2027 baselines.
- Gold: cheaper oil is easing Fed hike bets, which is lifting gold today; see our Monday gold page.
Quick take: Brent is near $110 on Monday, down about 3 percent, after OPEC+ held December output as expected and Iran said a Qatari-brokered plan could reopen Hormuz in two days. Washington has not answered and Iran’s conditions are steep. Expect $106-$114 while talks continue; $104 needs real progress on the plan, $120 needs talks to stall after the midterms.
FAQ
What is the Brent crude oil price today?
Brent is trading near $110 a barrel on Monday 2 November, down about 3 percent from Friday’s $113.43 January settlement (Trading Economics, Reuters).
Why is oil falling today?
Iran and Qatar held a third day of talks on ending the war, and Iran’s foreign minister said a Qatari-brokered plan could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days. Analysts also called the drop a technical pullback after last week’s gains (Reuters via CNBC, investingLive).
What did OPEC+ decide on 1 November?
Seven OPEC+ members kept December production targets unchanged, their third straight monthly pause. No further policy changes are expected until next year (Reuters via CNBC).
When does OPEC+ meet next?
All 21 OPEC+ members meet on 29 November, when the group is expected to address 2027 production baselines after a capacity review due by mid-November (Reuters).
Why did Brent drop from $117.64 to $113.43?
It did not fall by that much. $117.64 was the expired December contract’s final settlement; $113.43 is the January contract, now the front month. The gap reflects the contract roll.
Could Brent go back to $120?
Tim Waterer of KCM Trade warned that rhetoric around Iran could push Brent toward $120 after the US midterm elections on 3 November (Reuters via CNBC).
Sources: Trading Economics, 2 November (Monday price, daily and monthly change); Reuters via CNBC and Finimize, 2 November (intraday prices, OPEC+ decision, Saudi exports, Tim Waterer, ING); OilPriceAPI (06:31 GMT quote); investingLive, 2 November (Iran’s two-day plan, its conditions, Rubio, Trump, tanker claims); Reuters via FinanceFeeds’ OPEC+ decision report (settlements, October gain, capacity review, 29 November meeting).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.