The federal regulator is investigating alleged contract filing failures at the $40 billion prediction market operator, while lawmakers prepare increased scrutiny of event-based trading platforms. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has reportedly warned prediction market operator Kalshi that it could face enforcement charges over alleged failures to properly notify regulators about new trading contracts. The warning follows a months-long investigation into whether Kalshi complied with federal requirements when submitting proposed derivatives products for trading, according to a November 10, 2026, report by POLITICO, subsequently corroborated by Reuters.
A person familiar with the investigation said regulators were examining notifications involving dozens of proposed contracts. However, Kalshi disputes that characterization, maintaining that the issue concerns a substantially smaller number of products. The potential enforcement action comes as Democratic lawmakers prepare to intensify scrutiny of prediction markets following the November midterm elections. No formal CFTC charges have been publicly announced, and the investigation could conclude through a settlement or other regulatory resolution.
Kalshi Disputes Allegations Over Contract Certification Procedures
The investigation centers on the CFTC‘s self-certification framework, which allows federally regulated derivatives exchanges to introduce certain contracts without obtaining explicit regulatory approval for each individual product. Under the framework, exchanges must notify the CFTC and certify that proposed contracts comply with applicable rules, including requirements concerning settlement procedures, market integrity and resistance to manipulation. According to POLITICO, investigators are examining whether Kalshi adequately notified regulators about dozens of products under development.
Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana described the matter as a procedural submission error involving only a handful of contracts, many of which never became available for live trading. The company said it was addressing the issue. The disagreement over the number and status of affected contracts remains unresolved, and regulators have not publicly identified the specific products under examination. On July 24, the CFTC’s Division of Market Oversight issued an advisory warning designated contract markets against submitting overly broad certifications that combine numerous event-contract variations. The regulator explained that such filings could prevent officials from adequately assessing settlement methodologies, underlying data sources and compliance with market integrity requirements. The advisory applied generally to regulated exchanges and did not establish that Kalshi had violated the rules.
Democrats Target Prediction Markets as Federal Scrutiny Expands
The investigation emerges during rapid growth across the prediction market industry, which allows participants to trade contracts tied to political, economic, sporting and other real-world outcomes. Kalshi recently completed a $1 billion funding round at a $40 billion valuation, reflecting substantial investor interest in the sector. Competitor Polymarket, reportedly valued at approximately $21 billion, is also facing a separate CFTC investigation concerning compliance with restrictions imposed under a 2022 regulatory settlement. Democratic lawmakers, including Senator Elizabeth Warren, have raised concerns about insider trading, market manipulation and whether existing regulations adequately protect participants. Meanwhile, state authorities have challenged certain event contracts as potentially violating gambling laws, while Kalshi maintains that its products fall under federal derivatives regulation.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig has generally supported federal jurisdiction over prediction markets, creating a distinction between the agency’s broader regulatory position and its potential enforcement action against individual operators. The reported warning therefore does not necessarily signal a reversal of federal policy toward prediction markets. For Kalshi, the immediate question is whether investigators can establish material violations of contract notification requirements. The outcome could influence compliance standards across the industry as regulators and lawmakers examine how rapidly expanding event-based derivatives markets should operate within existing financial regulations.