Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, has claimed there is a “20–25%” chance he could become prime minister in the next four years—potentially before Donald Trump leaves the White House in January—if economic turmoil triggers an early election.
Farage made the remarks in an interview for 5 News with Dan Walker, suggesting that another market-driven crisis like the one triggered under Liz Truss’s premiership could bring the current government down.
“A run on the markets can do it,” Farage said, drawing parallels with past political upheavals. “I wouldn’t put it at more than 20%, 25%, but it’s possible.”
While Farage’s estimate seems high, seasoned political commentators have explored scenarios in which the Conservative Party fragments, paving the way for Reform UK to replace it. Writing on Substack, Peter Kellner, former YouGov president, outlined a potential strategy for Farage, describing it as having “an outside chance of working – no more.” Another analyst, Sam Freedman, questioned whether Reform could “kill the Tory party” entirely, but cautioned that it would require a sustained rise in Reform’s poll numbers, a decisive swing of support from Tory donors and MPs, and ultimately success in the next general election—likely to be in 2028 or 2029.
Freedman added that under the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system, two right-leaning parties cannot both survive long-term in direct competition, noting: “A ‘winner takes all’ system … will always end with one party being crushed or a merger.”
Still, doubts remain as to whether the backing Farage needs would materialise. The Conservative Party has proven resilient to fragmentation in the past, and Freedman cites possible negative perceptions of Farage’s association with figures such as Elon Musk as an ongoing hurdle. For now, however, Farage is talking up his chances—and the latest polling surge for Reform UK suggests Westminster should not dismiss him entirely.
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Farage puts 25% odds on becoming Prime Minister within four years
